by Prof. Jiren Bao; 703 750-0039
This is a very rough draft of a translation of an award-winning Chinese book into English. Brad Cox put this book in the Middle of Nowhere web as a professional courtesy to Professor Bao.
Summary
The author's creative theory K.O.M, makes the mathematical modeling of leadership, experts and masses triple integrate decision making. It is a universal nonlinear mathematical programming, which strides across the difference of capitalism and socialism operation. It is specially the east Asia ethics order and the break through of nonlinear social science.
Decision making is information processing. Listing the whole restraints of physic-psychological, socio-psychological and cognitive - psychological, the decision making turns into three dimensions systems, and practically becomes complex function. The system engineering is the another degeneration. Though it is a profound and philosophic book. It can be useful to mediate the trouble issue for decision maker. And it is "a golden key to open the modern information society" for the common readers.
This book is mostly a translation from a Chinese book (ISBN 7-208-01825-1). Then to add some American causes now we have cases under the different culture.
Inscription of Xia, Yan
The middle of this century. There have arisen the nuclear fission, computer, system science and other Hi-Techs. The boundary between natural and social science readily disappear. This has verified the famous saying:" Along with every epoch-making invention in natural science field, materialism is to be necessary to change the reform itself." Let us emancipate the mind and greet the Hi-Tech times of 21 century.
March 27, 1989
Preface
Comments on Professor Bao's New Book by Y. Paul Huo (Aug. 15, 1991) Washington State University
Theoretical developments in managerial behavior in the past two decades seem to have exacerbated rather than ameliorated the schism between social and physical scientists. Research in behavioral science has been drifting away from the conventional paradigms of "hard" sciences. These phenomenon may be interpreted either positively or negatively. On the positive side, the discipline of managerial behavior has grown, by and large, into a relatively independent, self-sufficient state. On the flip side, however, advocates of interdisciplinary research have found it increasingly difficult to pursue a marriage between hard and soft sciences.
As such, I am pleased to learn that professor Bao has taken a first step to make research in behavioral science a little more scientific by systematically quantifying and modeling the parameters of human behavior in the arena of management. In an era when quantitative and behavioral researchers still mock each other. Professor Bao's attempt to bridge the hard and soft sides of scientific research is certainly and miracle.
Does human behavior in organizations follow the same laws that depict the thermal/fluid dynamics? Some behavioral scientists may consider it ridiculously unrealistic to even ask such a question. They might argue that human behavior is much more complex and unpredictable than what is depicted by theories in physical sciences in particular there might be too many "moises" in the human society interfering with whatsoever predictions made on the basis of "K.O.M. model." Nonetheless, this very criticism is equally applicable to the postulate of "economic man" commonly used by quantitative economists. The so-called economic man who follows a rational and local path of thinking to maximize his economic welfare may never exist in the real world. Few would deny, nowhere, that this way of modeling economic behaviors has realty helped advance human understanding of the economic phenomena in modern society. By the same token, the beauty of "K.O.M model" lies in its capability to simplify the complex picture of the real world so that people might grasp the essences of managerial behavior more easily.
There is yet a long way to go before professor Bao's theory gets widely accepted as a valid paradigm of managerial behavior. A major challenge lies in verifying the explanatory power of his model by studying a large number of cases in a broader context of the real world. Even it is impossible to fit the real-life phenomena into his model perfectly, it will be feasible and meaningful to ask "what if the value of a parameter is changed?" In this book, professor Bao has provided numerous enlightening examples to meet this goal. Understandably, the audience may remain suspicious until additional, comprehensive real-life cases are analyzed with the unique framework offered by professor Bao. Hopefully, some day in the future the credibility of his "K.O.M theory" will appear as obvious to common people as Isaac Newton's theory of gravity, I look forward to the coming of this day. (Translated by Zhao, Yongchang)
Contents
Inscription of Xia Yan Preface (Professor Y. Paul Huo) Introduction Section 1 Scientific Theory Chapter 1 Non-linear Mathematical Programming What is the managerial behavior? 3, a lovely number Plasticine -- restraints and dimensional degeneration Non-linear mathematical pyromania Objective function of decision making and (X1, X2) "Single log bridge function" "jealous function" Chapter 2 Dis-symmetric triangle 7, another lovely number isosceles triangle? the operator Chapter 3 K.O.M Magic Cube five behavior mades behavior structure Score norm with uncertainty Efficiency "same will of the people, the mountain would be moved" "monkey king" Lei, Feng Robot Solider of PLA Parameter classification Chapter 4 Preliminary contrary saying of Mao, Zedong Experience of Lin, Biao The procedure of US Congress "Sun Zi's military strategies & Tactics" Rand Co. Theory of decision making Theory of adaptability Theory ZSection 2 Practical Method Chapter 5 Case 1: M questionnaire method making questionnaire by operator system of experts mass opinion leadership and graph for decision making scoring situation summary of this case
Chapter 6 Case 2: O questionnaire method making questionnaire by operator O questionnaire M questionnaire Summary of this case
Section 3 Philosophy and Culture chapter 7 philosophy chapter 8 Mathematics Chapter 9 Of cultural psychology the division of cultural psychology investigation of Chinese cultural psychology at the gate of park is the K.O.M specially designed for Chinese? Is the K.O.M. only designed for Chinese?
Appendix 1. The comments of scholars and experts Associate professor Zhang, Zu Cheng's comment Dr. Heilprin's comment Research professor Xu, Lian Chang's comment Research professor Tao, Zu Lai's comment other two comments' 2. Plotted function 3. Reference Postscript
Introduction
What this book says?
This book is about the optimization of triple integrate decision making. It belongs decision making science and behavior science. it belongs the quantitative school of thought of decision making and managerial behavior.
According to decision making science, K.O.M. is the Delph Procedure analytically and in a broad sense. It considers the illstructured issue to be the general object. It considers the good structured problem as the specific example of O=0, or equally, system engineering is the degeneration of O=0. At that circumstance, it gives the rational framework main part of M-dimension.
According to behavior science, it is analytical and higher behavior science. It is easier to spread the decision because of "group decision making." More than that, behavior science in the mother science of law.
According to politics, this " not unique level, not equal weighty, not simple majority and not integer vote' is much more scientific and democratic. It is the new developments of democracy. it provides much control and constraints to corruption and unhealthy tendency.
According to philosophy. It provides the whole viewing of progressive evolution in the vicinity of equilibrium. So it is the philosophy of reform, the philosophy of uncertain world. The dynamics of time dialectics.
According to culture, it is suitable for Chinese tradition of ethics and cognition. The parameter O is influenced by culture strongly. So it is for China the clothes making by taking somebody's measurements.
Finally we mention the math, except the "personal mathematics" for the mathematicians. We may use the nomenclature of "social mathematics" for the society thinking operations. There are full of nonlinear. And it is urgent to be developed.
The origin of this book
This is a popularized academic book. The original is the academic monograph "The Structure of Modern Managerial Behavior' (university of Science and Technology of China Press. Nov. 1989.) The monograph is originated of a thesis "Low risk decision making by using intellectual -onsage- shock wave model", 1984. The monograph won the 4th Chinese National Book Prize for the reason of "interscience break thorough". The minister of propaganda of Chinese Communist party central committee of that time gave the certificate. The five years after the publication of monograph. There are two progresses. One is the cases done in science and Technology circles in Beijing and Shanghai. The second, I contacted the society broad and got the deep understand to different social stratums. Then changing the angle of view and the language I wrote this book.
The structure of section-chapter
The first is introduction. The goal of this lies in eliminating the psychological barrier to readers for reading the abstruse theory. It is also a outline in order to have a break when the readers finish it so as to continue to read whole book. The following three sections. The first is scientific theory, the second is practical method, it is the application development of first section. The third is philosophy and culture. it is the advance to philosophy, math and culture. The three sections are pieces together but independent each other also. ancient Instruction: " Listen to both sides and you will be enlightened; heed only one sides and you will be benighted" Triple integration, it implies the leadership, experts and mass make triple integration. The key word is the "3". It demands the decision makers to listen both sides from experts and mass. It demands also the mass to participate actively. But some leaders today behave the accustomed to viewing upward in the planned economy period. Some leader today are not open minded, not having a mind as open as a valley. One should know that the mistakes of leader's decision making frequently happened. For the great Britain, there was policy of appeasement before the second world war. For the US there was the indiscreet of involving Vietnam War. For China, there was the ten year's "culture revolution' tragedy.
The year's culture revolution, it is no doubt the Mao, Zedon's serious mistake in his later years. This is already to be written into the historical resolution of Chinese Communist Party central committee. But we must have the viewing from both sides, the K.O.M. precise vote system with "not unique level, not equal weighty, not simple majority and not integer vote" is much more without distortion. But, if we don't pay attention to, this rule can not go to application widely.
'Listen to both sides and you will be enlightened; heed only one side and you will be benighted: "every man has a share of responsibility for the fate of his country" These are Chinese ancient helpful proverbs. We should take it. If the leaders are just "odd feeling for himself", and the mass dissimulate the responsibility to the great person. These feelings should be corrected.
Laying the railway truck simultaneously with the vehicle making A paper has published in March 15, 1994 on "Shanghai Youth Newspaper". the special another Cheng, Bang He pointed, every country are combined to the economic competition field modern times. Every country becomes a team. The practice proves that which country has the strong consciousness to participate for win and has the good and reasonable order with the modern ethics combination, which country is more possible to win. he considers that Japan developed the economy as strengthen the ethics as well during recent hundred years like "laying the railway truck simultaneously with the vehicle making". It lets the economic train running fast.
The situation of reforming now is getting better. The Chinese nation now has got the change of "one in hundred." The divine land is bustling with activity. To my understanding, the Cheng's paper warns us not to be impulsive and short time viewing. People should pay special attention to deep going orders. This kind of orders, are modern, are combined with ethics, and are good reasonable. This should be complexible. I think, the K.O.M.. that it is. Don't you think so?
Coming straight to the point" The semi-matrix K.O.M. is the learning of affairs. It provider the order of fair and reasonable. The order is complex comparating the traffic lights at the cross road. The main results of K.O.M. are as follow, this is the half of square or named semi-matrix. We are coming straight to the paint now.
Science and god what the state of mind you with, when you look this semi-matrix. With "listen to both sides and you will be enlightened" or with "everybody has a share of responsibility for the fate of his country"? It may should be that! The Nobelist H.A. Simmon said:" management is the decision making," "limit reason," "satisfactory instead of optimization" The second words indicate the limit reasonable for people. There is no ideal. There is a proverb say: "every one for himself, god for everybody." Under this meaning, the god and the science pay attention to public benefits. Science and god exist simultaneously.
Be quick at green light, better make detour at red light Above are the common saying to describe the people, who applicant the game theory to deal with government's mathematical programming. In all fairness, the game theory and mathematical programming vary substantially unity of opposites. Therefore, this kind of state of mind is common. As a bike rider, my idea just like that ' if there is a green light quite long time, I should be quick to speak up. If there is a red light just at moment, I will always make turning in advance."
So it should promise people to understand the semi-matrix from the negative side or selfish side. What is the best solution. The sub-best solution, the is not bad solution and bad solution in this semi-matrix diagram? How do not o too far? How to use the policy by taking full account. Here, we cite the American former president words as follows" We must use the result of theory K.O.M. with such mood." That must be relevant.
To win against, To loss less as well We explain the semi-matrix now..
The abscissa in M, also the 1/M axle is paralleled to it. M is the parameter related to risk. 1/M is the degree of assurance, 1-1/M is then the degree of risk. The ordinate is the O, O is the internal discipative, 1-o then is the rate of support, the "2*7 measurement" is parallel to be put with.
To consider abscissa and ordinate as well. That is the "listen to both side and you will be enlightened. Here is, the abscissa is the permissiveness of external circumstance, it is objective, it is given by rational opinion of expert system. The 1/M is the support rate of expert system; The ordinate is the permissiveness of internal circumstance, the feasibility of quality. This is also basically objective for the decision maker. For mass, it is quite subjective because the O involving the difference of values and misunderstanding. The 1-O is the support rate of mass. In believe, the leader should listen both expert's reason and mass's emotion.
There is a pentagon star on above of right. Its coordinates are: 1/M=70%, O=0.1. And the values of objective functions are =100, =74.6. Let us explain: =100, it is the grade measure of win a battle. Here is 100 score. There is ordinary expenditure involved according to =M* . -74.6/ This is the grade measure of irreversibility. The death and serious injure are that . If =100, it qill be perfect and reversible
Benefit and efficiency are the dual goal, this is a complex or a plane vector. The is term of office related. The is the measure of future trouble. As mentioned above, for simple and convenient, commonly we take only.
No risk in external circumstance and no discipative in internal, 100% agree, everybody raises hand to support, this kind of things can not happen. If we think so, this will be the childish of us. If a general act always under the principle of 70% assurance, it his staff officer do analysis the situation of both enemy and ours up to 70% assurance, and the quality of troop is good enough as O=0.1. Then, this things and behaviors will be scored as 100 grade. But, it we measure the reversibility and perfection. It will be the 75 grade.
War and Peace
It is said, that if a primary school students get the score of 99, his parents will still perplex and be uneasy. The competition of entering into higher school is so strong! But, there is partly such reason, because the world students faced with is a "certainty world."
But, there is a "uncertainty world' now! There are the primitive society, solve society, fundal society, capitalism society, socialism society and communism society according mainly to production relations. Comparatively, there are husbandry society, agriculture society, industrial society and post -- industrial society or information society (sometimes, we name it information era, or knowledge era) according manly to production. The average inherent values of K.O.M are accordingly increasing along with the develop of societies. The modern complicated and transient information society is specially the "uncertainty world."
There is no marketing risk for the natural economy. But there is more natural catastrophe risk of such economy. The planned economy does not recognize the risk. And the war does not admit the inner discipative. Because it follows the rules of "to execute the understanding, to execute also the not understanding. To understand more in the carrying out."
The China is a developing country. She just comes from agriculture society. She just also comes from the times of war, the times of drastic "class struggle." And she just yet comes from planned economy then transits to marketing economy. Like that, the Chinese are accustomed to uncertainty or not? What is the "good and reasonable order with the modern ethics combination?"
"Inner discipative," the words were used to the contradiction among people, to the peace times. It seems to hidden in the times of war and class struggle. It seems also to be hidden if the "commanding officer's will" is current popular. But, all above mentioned are the "in case." In fact, the external risk and inner discipative of the system operation are always exist and forever.
The pentagon star on the above right of semi-matrix represents the three year's Chinese liberation war in fact. The Campaign in peace time may be better than it or may be worse than it. The semi-matrix provides totally 45 rids as usual use. The performance of 24 grids are better than the of the pentagon star. It is for the perfection. We draw a follow pentagon star in the left of. This is the representative behavior in peace times: The quality of members is possibly low than the soldiers at that times, but the work should be done much carefully and with more assurance; The campaign may not be brilliant as that war is, but the cost should be paid less than that times.
But, the hollow pentagon star should not be used to fan out to entire.
The "counter-revolutionary in drawer" It is hard to understand but not making up. If we can understand the "counter-revolutionary on big-character poster," We may then guess the close concept.
There is virtual "anti-revolutionary." One of my high school classmate, who had been put into rightists (the anti-revolutionary) when he still was a freshman in 1957. He was insistently to say that the tsarist Russia had forcibly occupied some territories of our country in northeast and northwest. These words were not suitable at time. "Showing nor understanding of the times." Then he had sent into exile to Xinjiang (a Chinese northwest province bordered with USSR that time.) There he spend 20 years in his life.
Our generation, we saw the cold blooded knife on rifle of Japanese soldier, the bitter suffering of motherland had been ironed onto heart. We were at life's full flowering after the liberation, 1949, when we were early youth. We had gone through the Campaigns of "debate of red and expert" "debate of three red banners", "anti-revisionism" and so forth. It seems to have two kinds of people there. Some people "trim their sails," they understand the times well. They never try to beyond some "thresholds." Other are different, but they are still mild and tactful. They never behaves like that classmate above mentioned. The second category may become of "anti-revolutionary in drawer" by chance. Their acting rule is 1 The negation of negation
The dialectics recounts the ninety of opposites, quantitative and qualitative changes and negation of negation. The 'negation of negation", has turned a circle, but it is not at the original location. There used be a saying " developing in spirals. To my understanding, the space of K.O.M is curved and also folded. The reason of folded is the single direction of time. Therefore, it is developing in spirals or downward in spirals but not the circle on original plane.
To do things according to feelings and experiences? Afterwards, you have read this book. You may use the reason and quantitative to deny perceptual. But, you may use the intuitive perception to deny reason again. Negation of negation. You feeling must be much sensitive and better.
1+1=2 and without knowing the risk and the discipative, it is the level of primary school student. The China would not become "moderate developed." If the quality of people was not so high and only depended upon the tactics of sea of people. The pupil can also watch the person's every mood, but he can only read the simple happiness and anger. And you readers can understand much more from the tome, smiling expression and the choicing of words.
Over-cooked is worse than fresh and tender
"The high rate of support is worse than the low rate of support." At the first hearing, this is difficult to accept. In fact, you see the problem statically with having a mind to or having not to. The dialectics opposites the metaphysical viewpoint as isolated, static and one-sided.
For frying vegetable, it is important to be done in a turn, no good as not well done, but over-cooked is worse than fresh and tender. Going too far is as bad as not going for enough. This is the time dialectics. K.O.M is the dynamics theory, not advancing equal retreating. Every thing should be put on the time train to look.
From the semi-matrix, if a case is almost accepted by mass, O=0.167, the score of "2*7 measurement" is "6". Then, the support rate of expert system will be the optimization at the 75%. To raise the support rate by spending time in convincing process is pedantic therefore. It should be listed the time cost also!
If the quality of troop is quite high, the optimal degree of assurance for the resolution of the general will 70%, too high of assurance is conservative. As the limit, in order to get 100% assurance, may be only one chance in whole life, what is the benefit? If the degree of assurance is too small, it must be the dull-witted or even the war nobby. Balancing the wins and the losses, the total benefit must not be high. The deep profound of above mentioned is of what the reason is superior than intnition. At least, the intnition is difficult to be quantitative.
The Godbach conjecture?
The "Goldbach's conjecture" is a house hold word now. This is representative of being emphasized on the science today in China. The semi-matrix includes the main results of K.O.M. Is this a supposition? Of course, it is.
On the basis of this, I had tried to rename the theory K.O.M as the supposition K.O.M. But there were many opposed to. According to famous British scientist of scientific phylasoph paper. They, supposition, guess even viewpoint are the same somehow. We didn't have to argue. ''Since it is the "supposition," it should be verified. I have had many times to give report in Beijing and Shanghai. Some professors in majors of arts said to me: it is not understand totally but they believed. More generally, it is necessarily to do cases. A expert told me should do the big case. A officer and scholar told me that the access for deciding making science entering into practice is narrow. So, there are big difficulties. The question is: need lots of casts to be done. The professor Huo in preface of this book said: "understandably, the audience may remain suspicious until additional, comprehensive real-life cases are analyzed with the unique framework offered by professor Bao." So "there is yet a long way to go before professor Bao's theory gets widely accepted as a valid paradigm of managerial behavior."
The problem is : the research word of theory K.O.M is likely the Darwin's evolution theory. This was the comment of a professor when I was a visiting scholar in university of Maryland. We ask the scientist proper to do some favor. I said: any theory must be capable to deny. As people well know, suitable for moderate scope and low speed, the Newton's mechanics has been denied by the theory of relativity. In remote future, the society may be more open-minded. The quality of people must be more high, the technology of informant will be more miraculous. The dividing of three levels may to be denied possibly.
The second case
In the academic monograph. " professor Bao has provided numerous enlightening examples to meet this goal." But, it is not enough yet. People want more vivid examples, the real swards and spears -- the real thing. "kill a pig." In the fall of 1990, I had the chance to do case in institute of mechanics, Chinese academia Since. This case got the good comment of the director Xue, Ming-Inn and the president Chou, Guan-Zhao as well. Beginning from summer, 1993, I did the second bigger case co-op with the Shanghai institute for science of sciences. This project is the "follow the track of " research of 58 institutes reforming in Shanghai. The stress is on the financial issue of industrializing of science and technology. The comment to this case has been good also. The following is the scores for nine financial canals of experts and mass respectively and the final standard score ( ).
O, the first line of the table list the real surveying values ( use "2*7 measurement"), the second line list the transform values for hundred mark system. The surveying were conducted separately as "southwest region group" and "northeast region group". And the results were largely identical but with minor differences as imargined. The above table lists the total results for two groups. The vater are the directors of institutes. Totally are 43. The standard deviation is near 17%.
M, the first line of the table list the real surveying values. The second line list the transform values of M. The expert system includes 10 experts, such as the institute's originally engaged senior specialist, five from all. And we specially invite another five experts in the fields of finance, monetary, tax. In summary, they are the leader of Shanghai people's congress, the leader of Shanghai Academia of social sciences. The leader of people's bank, the leader of University's Institute for economics and The assistant president of university. But, they are not the leader of contemporary government. They commonly have the title of researcher and professor. The scores standard deviation of them are comparatively later than the mass's (as mentioned above.)
The objective functions of decision making = (M,O) and = (M,O), we frequently use the as the degenerate (from 2 dimensions to 1 dimension), the "OM standard score".
The results analysis : double sieve
If the opinion of expert system and the opinion of mass is always coincident, the three in one decision making will make the trouble to do tat. The normal is "largely identical but with minor difference." The widely divergent is seldom to appear. Now, the first choices scheme for experts and mass are both scheme 1 : The "bank for science and technology. The second choices for them are different. The mass take a fancy to scheme 8 (old-age pension loan). But, the experts hold great carefully. It is again coincident down. That is the scheme 3 and 7. In brief. This survey is normal.
The six schemes, e.g. The 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, have been rejected. The reason is zero score. At the same time, the deviation of expert is larger or near the critical convergent value 30%. The value of M is larger than , 4 even near 1.8 - 2. In sum, from the both sides, it is nearly the marginal.
Two schemes are accepted, the scheme 1 (bank for science and technology) is the sub-optimal, score 85. The scheme 3 (The cut-down allocation of institutes operating expenses for long), is not bad, scored 62. The scheme 7 (foreign capital), score 41, is the bad score 41. But, it is the contemporary sensitive "bleach horse".
Mere the divergent of experts is quite big. It is nearly marginal as 30%. One of experts gives the score 30. Another expert gives the score 50, and wrote:" bad way. The Chinese brains are used by foreigners." It is, thus clear, that two experts have seen the effects of negative.
Triple integrate decision making reflects the "listen to both sides" of decision maker. Because of the expert consulting and the mass consulting have been done separately. Therefore, the schemes have to pass the double sieve. Mere, the six schemes have not pass the sieve. From the data of table. It is clear that each sieve gives about score 60, the pass score. The most obvious example: the scheme 5 and 6. But the product of 60 multiple 60 is zero, therefore, this is a "non-linear double sieve.'
Social mathematics
Except the "individual" mathematics of individual mathematicians. We may advance the 'social" mathematics for the social thinking operation. There are very rich, colorful and interesting.
The 'society" know the mathematics very few, so backward, in brief, may name "only know the integer, do not know the fraction", "only know real, do not know complex," "only know the linear, do not know the non-linear."
Seeking the course in history, the Chinese communist party central decision making level in those days to star the "cultural revolution." Some persons raise their hands to agree. It is "one vote.' But have you thought about that some person's vote are "to be of two minds" and "to be agitated." What is the real content? AT those days, it would also be considered as "integer vote." -- total accept. Is it the "only know the integer, do not know the fraction." After the beginning of "reform and open" period. The democracy has developed.
"Only know the linear, do not know the non-linear.' For example: " the more the people are, the easier they make the job." "The more the courage people have, the more the crop is." It is correct within certain range. The spring is proportional to be stretched within certain range. It appears linear. If it is stretched for ever, it should never be linear. The 21st century, the century people names as non-linear science century. At that time, the basic theory for build buildings is still the elastic theory (for the elastic material). Therefore, the non-linear phenomenon perhaps mainly reflects on the field of social sciences. "Water flows down, people go up." "Arm bends always to inner." "People concern face-saving, officer has his high horse, organization has its departmental selfishness" "good things go not very far, bad news propagate thousands miles far away." etc. Sounders (one of the founder of catastrophe theory) said, "it is easy to suppose" those mathematics is such a local discipline, the mathematician is such a rational man, then, every great progress must at moment to be admired by mathematician circle. Any new things which haven't got that must be not valuable If we only roughly have a reviews of history of math, it will not be absolutely.' So, the mathematician is always the "limit rational."
0.6 * 0.6 =? In the simple process. It equal still 0.6; In the calculating qualified product of up and below procedure in assemble line of industrial society. The result is 0.36 now, we have the third calculation: " 0.6 * 0.6 equals zero."
This reflects the insatiable and uncertain of a multi joint chain, or so-called a long night is fraught with dreams. it must pay the cost of risk of uncertain. And this is non-linearly coupled with people's mind. The readers may notice: in semi-matrix, if O equals 1/3, 1 -O =2/3, or the 2.3 majority 9 not the simple majority). The thing with uncertain than will be passed (nearly the score of 60). Or equivalently, if such things have the resistance more than 1/3, the things will not be passed.
Marvelous non-linear:" The wisdom of three cobblers exceeds that of the wisest individual" but also "three dis cooperative Buddhist monks haven't water to drink." The things above mentioned is : the upper level and the bottom (mass) both are not enthusiastic. They both wait and see. The things then can not be promoted. Such, the famous saying of Mao, Zedong is: "not to grasp firmly is not to grasp at all.'
In spring of 1990, the vice president Xia of Shanghai academia of social sciences told to me: please explain your theory to use (the presidents) but never use mathematics. Four years after, according to this second case, it is possible to explain to him by using very simple version: ' two score 60 multiplied equals zero." Then he answers:' your theory K.O.M some meaning in it/" This is the bright point of this theory.
The comment for this method
K.O.M set up a general framework. So, it is a theory. At the same time, it is a method. We may use this method to survey. Its advantages are as follows:
(1) many. 9 schemes can be deal with simultaneously. And the results are rich and detailed. The normal meeting can not e like that. It must be at a loss.
(2) quick. Counter-aided data processing is very quick. We may even make a vote machine with key board.
(3) good. The quality of data is good. The results are clear. The non-linear double sieve reflects the original true features of things.
(4) Time saving. It may save some meetings. And the mail surveying may then be used.
Therefore, it is the new weapon for large scale information processing. The preconditions are : open minded leader, the active participating of mass, high quality of operator. And the issue must should be important and controversial. And it need the computer to calculate.
Outline of Theory K.O.M
We give the outline of theory K.O.M in the later part of introduction. Then we transit to the first section: scientific theory.
Triple integration, or three in one, means leader, expert and mass make the combination. Decision making, the meaning of it is very clear according to American Noblest H.A. Simon famous sayings: "management is decision making." Optimization, the classification for optimal solutions, sub-optimal solutions, not bad solutions and bad solutions from all of schemes.
The matter seems to be familiar. The Mao Zedong thought has earlier the saying of "the mass line: from mass to mass." Tater it has the "An Shan Steet and Iron Co. constitution of the leadership of party committee. technicians and worker triple combination." The managerial decision making of Japan, the east neighbor of Chian, is quite famous. Its feature is "the decision making on the base of unity of opinions.' The methods of this is "up and down several times carefully to make decision." The K.O.M. as quantitatively operational theory, it can not be mentioned is same breath with above.
Nowadays, the begin academic circle have discussed the complex system, including the social system. They have noticed the main feature is its of levels. The decision making need to be three in one combined, this should not have the dissent. In K.O.M modeling, we introduce a isostructural of natural science so as to realize "from statistical mechanics to thermodynamics.' But, the preconditions of three levels indicates that it is never the "reduction theory."
The decision making, is the information processing. People are the processor. The behavior of plasticine is infinite, continuos but not arbitrary. There is constraints of conservative of volume.
For the decision making behaviors, we need also seek the original aim or stand, from which the changing of ten thousand times without departing. This is to seek a series of constraints of conservative laws. one category of constraints are natural science's. For example, the man as computer initiative, has also the constraints of constant operational speed and constant storage. "being carried away by emotion, or warning somebody of the consequence, anyhow, you can speak certain number of words in one hour:' Another category is social and cultural. In fact, it consider the conventional of social tradition. Besides above two categories of "strict constrains, there are some approximate "linear constraints." And this reflects the feature of technological science of K.O.M. The linear approach is: before rationally understanding the earth is round, the conception of "ground-plane" must necessarily be. And at the same time, it is useful approximately within certain range. In summary, K.O.M considers not the 'abstract man" but the "real man", who has emotions and limit rations, and the physic-psychological, soci-psycholoical and cognitive-psychological restraints.
Proper creatively put forward the world 1, world 2, and the world 3, and the world 2 is the medium from world 3 to world 1. K.O.M lists the restraint equations (11 -12) on world 2. The subject is the elements of world 3. It form is universal non-linear mathematical programming. Here we can basically say, it pay much attention to macro, secondary control based on the first marketing control. After the reduction of dimensions, the K.O.M transfer every managerial behavior into three dimensional continuos system. H.A. Simon once indicated, the optimization problem once has been arranged adequately and suitably. It will become the standard mathematical probe. The problem of maximizing with objective constraints is such that we have just manage to be the new "natural law" (or, the soft science may strive for the quasi-natural science).
We must accept the historical form of pore operation. Or frankly say, the development of science rational exist in power. Thus, the optimization of decision making is the operator's suggestion to leader after he did the two dimensional consulting of excepts and mass. K.O.M. then transfers the decision making problem into complex function. And the two dimensional structure just is the emotion feeling and the reasoning (Chines ancient philosopher Zhu, Xi, Song dynasty, had put forward the heavenly principles and the Human passions, but he didn't know their mathematical structure, decides, he went to extremely end.) This structure indicates the relation of science and democracy, science and culture reasonable and feasible and the information wave and energy discipative flow. This structure oversteps the difference of capitalism and socialism. But, it has greatly influenced by culture quantitatively.
Section 1 Scientific theory
Chapter 1 Non-Liner Mathematical Programming
What is the managerial behavior?
Price and value of commodity, "drop apple," time-space coupling; mass and energy transfer, electromagnetic save and light quantum. The basic logic and framework of science is always very brief and highlight.
Managerial behavior is same without exception.
"Please you two to go upstairs to take a desk for me!" This is the simplest behavioral process. There are yet three kinds of element for any behavior:
(1) Technical skill. Capable or not to move a desk?
(2) The brightness of circumstance. It relates to insight skill or conceptual skill. If the circumstance is absolute bright, then the efficiency to take desk should be 1. if there is absolute dark, in the case of infinite room and very tiny thing. The efficiency then approaches to zero.
(3) The factor of co-op. It relates to human skill. if the desk is hearty-at-one-end. Then the two persons may contend to heavy end. or may contend to avoid. Both may be locked for ill co-op.
There are two factors for managerial behave or except the technical factor in all three factors above. The one is the external circumstance factor and the another is the inner system discpative factor. Now we add the third, the intelligence of leader in charge. Intelligence is not the knowledge. It is more than knowledge. It is the deep understanding. The leader who has the deep understanding for his tow subordinate previous look after so as to avoid the embarrassing.
The intelligence of leader in charge need be defined as the capability to discover the potentiality of information. We write down as K.
We use a parameter M to describe the brightness of circumstance,
M = V/ [a]
in which, V is the speed of behavior, or action speed, [a] is the external necessary information speed. So here we deal with comparison. If there is brilliantly illuminated upstairs and downstairs, and [a]= then M=0. It is the absolute bright circumstance, no difficult exist. If we turn on the lights one by one while we o upstairs eventually to inner room. At this condition, M =1, the action speed and the information speed are at the equilibrium. This is the so-called critical state. If the circumstance is absolute dark that you can not see your hand in front of you, the [a]=0, M= , if the room is infinite large, the thin you want to take is infinite tiny. The efficiency then approach zero. it is likely that fish a needle out of the ocean. In the range 1 The causes of discipative are the conflict of benefits and misunderstand. So, this is the conception of cultural and values.
3, a lovely number
We consider the managerial behavior as three dimensions, namely, the M dimension, the O dimension and the K dimension. The triple integration decision making optimization implies to integrate the systematic rational understanding of experts and the classified feelings of mass and the long time formed to dealing with importance and urgency of leaders.
In [ ], I have cite a research result. It lists 50 parameter for the intelligent and non-intelligent factors of human beings. In other words it lists the intrinsic intelligent factor k as 25 parameters and the external factor T as 25 parameters as well. But, the main framework is three dimensions. theory it can be multiplied and derived.
3, is the smallest of the prime numbers except 1. People know the simplest stable shape is triangle. 3, is lovely number. Mistrocialkly in sceikhdom the chief of a tribe is a man of his word. Common people are like dirt. The dimension of this society is one. The structure then gradually evaluated. The King has his officials for him to consult. In the fundal society there are King, military governor, relatives of the King, enthusatimcs, civil officials and so on. The bureaucrats shield one another. Specially in the ending time of each dynasty. The structure has evolved to bi-ples. The bi-poles is not stable. It is easy to vibrant. It is possibly to be the three dimension structure as the society evolves.
From 2 to 3, the structure has evolved. Social division of labor that is the meaning of evolution. The arms and legs of ape is one dimension. From ape to man, arms and legs divide the labor. The number of dimension increases. It is 4 after the 3. The 4 is the same constitutive. 5 and more is the multi-poles and is not simple and clear as 3. For the infinity . It implies the whole people vote. It is impossible for the information technology know. Eventually, the number 3 is the lovely number.
Comrade Deng, Xiao ping said:" fully to develop the democracy, to ensure whole people practically to enjoy managing the country especially the local political power and enterprises and causes.'
It seems to be that the triple integrate decision making is a better choice for scientific and democratic decision making.
Plasticine- Restrains and dimensional degeneration
The managerial behavior is three dimensional as mentioned above. If we take more parameters considering in more detail. The number of dimensions must increase. If we take more restrains, the number of dimensions must decrease as contrasted with.
The set of plasticine behavior is infinite and continuous but never arbitrary. The set of plasticine behavior must meet a conservative law of constant volume. Therefore, not expanded plasticine has the dimensions less than one compared with some kind of imaginative capable to be expanded plasticine.
The set of managerial behavior is also infinite and continuous but never arbitrary. We need sufficiently consider different factors and list all of important restraint conditions. Let degenerate the dimensions. And eventually to get three dimensions. Isn't it good?
There are the words now in China as :" getting into the sea." There were the popular words in hand in 50s and 60s as:" going up to the sky." "Fish is swimming in the wide sea, bird is flying in the blue sky." Both sky and sea are the three dimensions.
Enterpriser, scholar, officer and everybody are the steersmen of their own ship. In the "ten year's cultural revolution." There was popular sang of "dependent up steersman for sailing into sea." This is the emotional coloring of central planned economy of that period. In the years of marketing economy of socialism. Everybody should are as well as steers. Everybody writes his own history. In the numerous, complicated and transient information times, everybody should have alert and resourceful of flying dish shooter. The marketing economy of socialism has liberated the productivity and therefore asked everybody more!
4. Non-Linear Mathematical Programming
H.A. Simon said:" management is doing decision making." The next sentence need to be : decision making is information processing. Where information comes from? It comes from material world (popper's "world "). And it comes from knowledge, the product of human being's spiritual (popper's "world 3").the books are put on the shelves of libraries. Thus, it is also "world 1"). Where the information is to be processed? The human brain is therefore the processor, and this is the popper's "world 2". We set up the equations on the human being brain.
In order to et taking the measure of information we can only take the reduction or differentiation way. A sentence may be composite with 10 words averagely. The sentence should be consider to a particle or an element. To describe a broken line only need some "elements." To describe a curve perhaps need hundreds of such "particle." if he says: somebody is honest and kind, there should be a story in the meaning of deduction.
The process of thinking turns out to be the mechanism of collision or choice of these partial in brain. But, it is not enough to say differentiation. If should say classification and transition to add. The first classification is total useful for contemporary process. That is "potential energy" likely. The potential energy may totally transfer to mechanical work. For example, the telephone number before you use it. In brief, there are three different kinds of information elements. The first consists of "previously applied information." It is the kinetic energy likely. The second consists of "information not yet applied but having imminent potential application" as mentioned above. The third consists of "latent" information. i.e., external information at hand, available but neither used in the immediate past nor necessarily to be used in the near future. It is the heat energy likely. The heat can not transfer to mechanical work totally. Therefore, the third category information is the possible useful or the possible not useful knowledge. That "Kenya is a country of East Africa" is information that usually belongs to the third category as far as the visiting scholar performing some natural science research in the US would be concerned.
After the call, the category of telephone number has changed. From US to Africa, the category of knowledge of Africa geography has changed also. The information storage of brain frequently changes from internal to external or vice versa, imitating the computer operation. Usually you only keep one item of internal information element: the telephone number book is the drawer. Immediately before the phone call, you make the shift from the external storage to internal storage: you open the book to read.
Listen whole restraints of 11 -12, we got mathematical equations. This is a mathematical programming. It is to seek the maximum of objective function (here is ) under the restraints of equalities and inequalities. It is named non-linear mathematical programming for its non-linearity.
This equations is the core of the theory K.O.M. There is detailed deduction in [ ]. We only give some explanations in this popular book. It is likely the freehand brushwood in traditional Chinese painting.
First of all, there are two equations. The first equations describe the information wave. It gives the solution of "efficiency will decrease some according to what shortage of information is." According to experience, we basically bright the curve approaches. We therefore name the information wave as "single-wood bride function." The first equations describe the rational cognitive process. The man who is familiar with the aerodynamics, understand that is a shock wave equations as same form. This is not curious. It is because that the theoretical thinking is the collision behavior of information elements (or particle). The free choice mechanism. The power can not control it. Therefore, this is the behavior of fans. it is not the behavior of solid. The solid like metal, the atoms vibrate at the crystal lattices with tiny amplitude. Therefore, the solid is quite rigid. Besides, the behavior of thinking is not likely the "liquid behavior." The liquid acts much more freely than the solid does. it can easily slide each other. but it does not free as gas is. you sit in the living room. As soon as the fish is been frying in the kitchen, you know at moment. mainly, there is water not air to fulfill the space of rooms. You will not so quickly know.
"How many shortage of information, how many the decrease of efficiency then is." it must be under the meaning of statistical. The first equations is the "shock-wave equations." It is complete equal mathematically to rational thinking. Therefore, we do not need to do the statistic. The air has done it yet. The air is free and soft. But it has a little elastic. In a small volume of space. Its pressure will increase gas of more air moving into. Then, they push their "neighbor" at moment. According to the general the second Newton's law. Some molecule will move into the neighbor's room under the pushing of pressure. And because of inertia. They rush over. The original room then has a little bit of vacuum. Thereby, some air will move into this room in original direction again. The above describing in the propagating of small disturbance in air. And that is the sonic wave. For a certain medium, the speed of sonic wave is constant (for example, in air , at 15 C and sea level, the speed is 340 meter/second.) this is its characteristics of inmate. If aircraft flies supersonicly, its speed more than the speed of propagating of pressure disequilbrium -- sonic speed. The aircraft does not inform the air ahead of it in advance. The aircraft dashes into. So it should pay the cost. This is similar to that "a thing" is moving supersonically in circumstance. It is the same thing. A thing has the reason in it. So there is a 'learning of reasonable." If you are not turning on the lights on by one while you o upstairs, if you turn on the light slower a little than you willing, it is difficult to avoid the stumble or stagger along. The reform and the research word are all progressing under the circumstance with information shortage. There by they are also the supersonic flying.
The first equations deal with the rational thinking. So it describe the behavior of experts. The director of a research institute is a leader as well as a expert. Moreover, some persons with lower level are also can be listed in the expert system adroitly guide according to different cases. Thus, the fourth equation of the first equations perhaps is the leading role. It is because that describe the experts. Here, the is the knowledge, (K-1) is the intelligence, T is the intensity of his activity, or as the level of persuasiveness or inspirational intensity of work. Thereafter, this equation is to say: the driving force is proportional to knowledge, intelligence and intensity of activity. And thus, it is coincident with so-called Chinese slogan is 50s: "be red and expert" or in 80s "revolutionize, younger, knowledgeable, and professionals.' This equation is a linear equation. This equation is correspond to constitutive equation in physics. In Chinese, constitutive means basic structure.
This lay has five characters. in order to be full of sound and color, vivid and dramatic. They should be mutual better co-op. So, the above mentioned is not necessarily named as leading role. Now, we mention the second equation. This is the equation of momentum. Such is, the change of move is proportional to the force. The reader then understand that it is the second law of Newton. But, this is the basic mathematical instead of basic physical. Prof. Smith, has wide knowledge, be expert in the project, enthusiastic and energetic. So he has big driving force. According to this equation, the more the driving forces, the more the speed of project moving, they are proportional. And this argument is therefore the same as "the curve may always approach with the tangent in the small vicinity near by that point." So, that is the generality of linear approach of math. This equation is related to basic math and physics. She is uncommon!
Then we look the first equation. this is the mass conservative equation. This equation is the restriction to finite densities of information. Also, this equation correspond to that speed conservative of brain compare to the imitation of computer operation. The computer speed, 5000/sec for today, is impossible 100,000,000/sec tomorrow.
The news published in "Shanghai youth newspaper" Nov. 30, 1993 said:" super man bay is unimaginably queer." a baby named Loharvere was born on moon, 2 years old, he can lift 200 Lbs, run 1 mile within 10 seconds, just over the lorry and so forth. But you were born on earth, so you can not be Loharvere at some day morning. you are man today, you can not be a superman tomorrow!
Then we look the third equation. It is the "energy conservative equation.' Its meaning is "being carried away by emotion, or warning somebody of the consequences, anyhow, you can speak certain number of words in one hour." The first equation corresponds to computer operational speed is conservative. This equation corresponds to computer storage totally conservative constant. In totally five equations, this one plays important role. It consider the same side of kinetic energy likely, potential energy likely and internal energy likely information elements. In fact, some information is possibly useful and possibly useless as well, some information is overtones or implication. But for a sensitive man, these can have the use of widespread connecting in the mind. Just as this is making the function of information wave, e.g. the "single--wood bride function" approach near the critical bright (threshold value M=1). and is not making the sharply down. There is all is quiet and still. There is pitch dark at night. But, just a little beyond this threshold. The mother has special sensation for her baby's crying. The photographer has special sensation for glimpse of mysterious "night owl." etc. The things have general connections and the people have different K of their own.
Beyond the four equations, there is a entropy inequality. hundreds of millions people understand the meaning of entropy today. It has some different in form but equal descriptions like: "only having observed the diffusion of a drop of ink in water; never having observed the already diffused ink in water concentrated together again." "the chimney gas temperature is impossibility higher than atmospheric temperature, the refrigerator produces the cold internal and the heat external as well." "the dad man never can be resurrection, because the real time for it is 1043 years statistically." The precondition of entropy inequality is the energy isolated. The thing of theory K.O.M is belong to information open and energy closed. In [ ] give the fulfill proven. We only give the explanation here. In case of soldier's march the speed of energy flow is indicated by pace speed. And the speed of information wave is indicated by sonic speed. They are comparative 200 times. Thus, the energy reader may draw inferences about other cases from one instance. The exchange of information between two countries. Some should have costs, some haven't. But the trade are exchange of equal values. The intellectual property like patent should have the value. In brief, there is the difference between the flow and the wave. The flow indicates the energy the wave is the tiny energy. They are different and same as well.
Three conservative laws, one constitutive equation, and one inequality. They are the basic mathematical law and law of physical and statistics. They formulate the shock wave of aerodynamics. Further, the setback caused by shortage of information in gray circumstance must not mechanical like the shock wave of aerodynamics. Why? there is the factor of human. As mentioned above. The sound of baby crying is so light that people can not detect it except his mother. It is because his mother has the special intelligence K for this process. The intelligence is just for uncertainty. Intelligence and knowledge are different and same as well. High score means high capability. High score also may be lower capability. For the certainty, the intelligence is meaningless. If teacher tests the students, says: what happens when I have a free hand which previously holds the chalk? Everybody knows the certainty. Thus, it can not to distinguish their intelligence. it is only one curve for the mechanical aerodynamics shock wave. But for the managerial behavior. The information wave curves form a cluster with the parameter of K. They concentrate in the point of certainty M =1, =1. They spread out along with the increase of M. They like the pony tail.
M=2 means the half information, and the war is that please guess the color of a piece of weiqi ( a kind of Chinese chess) which is holder in my hand. Is black? or white? It is the typical gamble with the win ration of 0.5. It is the M=2. So that, especially for the period of peace, the M<=2 almost can cover the all processes in gray circumstance for ordinary reasonable persons. Then, we look the cluster as one curve for ignoring the difference of experts intelligence's, and it only brings to less than 10% error in case of M<=1.8 - 2. This conclusion can be proven mathematically. And, the 10% is also the approximate range of error for theory K.O.M.
Then we do not measure the intelligence of expert in the concrete. The intelligence of lead has transformed to (x1,x2) see the second equations. It is usually not to measure in the concrete also, see the flowing chapter 2. In brief, we do not take operation for the intelligence for expert and for leader as well. It is 50 - called the self- similar or self - modeling. The, we degenerate the three dimensions of K.O.M to two dimensions (K is as a constant, usually K=1.4). Practically, since we take the average value of opinion of a group of experts, so we ignore the difference of value of K individually. And in order to respect the historical inertia of the leadership is suggestion power's operation, the consultant for.
There are the discipative O and the viewpoint (x1, x2) in second equations. They correspond the mass and the leader respectively. The discipative is caused by the conflicting of benefit among people and the misunderstanding and the difference to understand the values. Therefore, it is a discount for the standard rational viewpoint, it is the long time integrated experience of leader for the equilibrate the importance and urgency. (The equilibrium of and ). This is the leader so wiser than the expert. It is because the leader can see the overall situation. It is also a correction. So, the second equations make the first equations to be more precise through these two kinds of correction. The two equations are "loosely coupled," and the first equations can be solved first. Then we adjust it. This way, we may say it is lucky.
"Loosely coupled" can be illustrated for example. If you two pay visit to pro. O'connor. the one (as expert) who is in the know said. 70% he is not in home. The time must be waste. This is the loss of risk. It is usually sudden and unexpected. Besides, you two may quarrel and hesitate on the way to. For example to debate on wording. This is another count. Distributed frictional loss and the unexpectable sudden "wave loss" then can be added.
In the second equations, the first is the definition of friction loss. It will be explained more detail in 8 this chapter. We just say here that the friction loss it self is coupled. The risk and friction are coupled. The loss expresses as OM2. It means that if Prof. O'Connor certainly is home you may hesitate and the uncertain home or not must increase the quarrel. The second formula to forth formula have been explained yet. The fifth formula, it is only need to indicate M=V/[a], that means M is proportional to V. Reader can understand therefore, the sixth formula is the objective function for decision making. The leader adjust the benefit and the long time effect efficiency by using the Indies (x1, x2).
The two equations are loosely coupled. This is very luck. In the first equation, it is to be listed the natural science restraints including physic-psychological restraint. It is the natural science. The second equations include the socio-psychological restraint. This is the social science. In summary, the whole two equations are interscience. Cognitive psychology deals will whole thing, it is philosophy likely. To use one equations to set up the mathematical relations in many factors of natural science and social science is to construct a bridge between them.
In first equations, there are two "linear assumption." In second equations, there are also two "linear assumption." But, the solution of whole equations is non-linear. For a popular analogy, some liners are at second floor, some are at third floor, so the final integrating result is non-linear. The K.O.M is diagram of linear non-equilibrium final state in the very vicinal of equilibrium. It is because that this can be used up to M<=1.8 - 2. Thus, we can say that it provides the whole diagram of vicinal of equilibrium of progressive evolution.
5. Objective function of decision making
In second equations, there are also some constrains. We ignore the detailed deduction. Formally, they are four definition formulas as follows:
here, the means the external result of a thing or a case. The count unit, may be $. is respectively the capital, the labor and the intensity of activity. has the same counting unit. So is dimensionless intrinsic and comparative effect. In fact, this is the productivity of all factors, which is frequently be used by world bank.
The following measures are all dimensionless and intrinsic or called similarity parameter. The length of one side of a triangle is measured by centimeter. But its inner angle has not the dimension. Just the dimensionless intrinsic measures are much substantial. Because they decide the triangles is sharp or blunt.
is the objective function of decision making; is the benefit or effectiveness or performance; is the efficiency the suffix 2 indicates under the meaning of the second law of thermodynamics. and are independent each other. In simple words: "be good the horse" "be less it eats". For the objective function of decision making, we need synthesis them. Here we accept the index weighted. The coupled number (x1,x2) is the plane complex.
In the final formula. The efficiency counts both of risk efficiency and the inner discipative loss .
The four equalities are very symmetric. They analyze problem layer upon layer. There is always 'one divides into two" in each level. In the inner core level, there are also the risk and the discipative two factors.
The so called the structure of managerial behavior. That is the structure of the risk and discipative concretely. This is also the structure of information wave and energy flow, the structure of science and democracy, the scientific and artistry, the rational and limited rations, fair and reasonable. These two are "loosely coupled" in one side, e.g. the is the function of M only (or K, but not O). It can be solved independently. But in other side , the energy discipative is not "loosely coupled" for M and O. In summary, risk and discipative is simple in conception, but complex in the count.
6 and (x1,x2)
"Time flies like a arrow." That is the world outlook basically, it reveals the irreversible of thing, the tendency of evolution, the non-symmetric and therefore the non-linear sufficiently.
The under the meaning of the second law of thermodynamics is just the another saying of above.
A boiler, we first assume a adequate air excessive coefficient, then we can calculate the furnace temperature (for example, 1300 C) by means of the equation of combustion of coal. Therefore, we have calculated the thermo-efficiency by means of the calculating chimney temperature. The chimney temperature is impossibly lower than the atmospheric temperature according to the second law of thermodynamics.
If the chimney exhaust temperature is equal to atmospheric temperature Ta (15 C). Then
If the chimney exhaust temperature is 150 c, then
if the cupola furnace exhaust temperature is 350 c, then
The process is reversible and perfect, it =1. The example of such process: a person has lived some certain days, but the days are not be counted in life-span. He is never getting old a little. So, this is the limit of perfect, the standard of cosmic.
For a product, there is the local city level or city standard or the national standard and international standard. Theory K.O.M provides the cosmic standard as mentioned above. We put the score of case in which K is ordinary, 1/M=70% and O=0., equal 0.75 according to cosmic standard.
If we give a punch to hammering block, this process is elastic and reversible. Along with the time passing the mark disappears. Therefore, the hammering block does not bear a grudge! But, the case is different like that we mind the metal wire. If ten windings must result in breaking off. Then one more widing must result in one less life. However, the natural science law is comparative simple yet. It is much more complicated for the case of people involving. Some people are narrow minded, other people are bread minded. The husband and the wife usually are 'not bearing a grudge more than one night." Therefore, the smart person does not pay serious attention to their quarrel. He may try to stop it a little.
(x1,x2) is a complex. It provides the angle direction in plane in order to adjust the weight of . People want the horse to be better and to eat less. How much you consider the weight of later? This issue is to be left to leader.
Next chapter, we introduce the golden law in psychology -- the limitation of short time memory, and then the seven divided operational of feelings. Thus, (x1, x2) is also can be operated by seven divided as follows.
Here, viewpoint (1,0) is "only count benefit, don't care the efficiency.' But, because = , the efficiency is already counted once time. So, we usually consider this viewpoint as normal.
The viewpoint (1,1) is much tolerable. It corresponds to Chinese slogan "achievements in scientific qualified scientists in academic fields." In Deng-Sizo Ping selected works, there is a saying, the above mentioned "spirit is generally suitable for all departments and units with the intellectuals working in." In summary, such viewpoint is tolerable, "water fish!", give the matter further thought.
The viewpoint (0,1) is conservative. "No fault, no merit" "trilliums to pander to backward."
7 Single-wood bridge function
Risk efficiency counts the risk loss. It is the solution of the first equations of this non-linear mathematical programming. Some equipment's turn into trash iron because of the research project has abandoned midway. Why? because of not precise of information. This is the loss. But, 'dealing does not work, human felling remains." We should count it correctly. The reader who is familiar with fluid dynamics may know, the here is the total pressure recover coefficient, as follows. From the figure, we see this is a double stable state transition function. From the stable state =1 (M<=1) transits to another stable state . We name it as "single-wood bridge function" considering the approach character of this function. Why? in the serial of "single-wood bridge" with different width, the very wide and the very narrows are also not sensitive to width.
This figure is for special K. If the value of K is getting larger, the curve will be higher. The performance will be better. But in the vicinity of certainty of M=1, =1. The curves are not already to scatter away from. Therefore, in the range of low-risk decision making. The K is not sensitive.
8 jealous function
The efficiency fall caused by inner discipative is the loss of discipative. We name the correspondent: jealous function. The name is distinctive but never something negative.
The jealous function expresses the energy loss: M, M is the product of OM and M. So, the OM is the frictional force. It multiplied by M (M represents the speed, the dimensionless speed) equals OM. That is the frictional power.
In fact, the relation among people the psychological distance is changeable not like the distance between two points in rigid solid. There is the friction among people caused by the differences of culture background and values, by conflict of benefits and misunderstanding. The psychological distance changes with the circumstance evolved. It is likely the distance of two particles in oil.
The frictional force is proportional to O as mentioned above. It is decided mainly by cultural background and values and is different individually. It is also decided of movement. For example, two classmates after the graduation, one get the title of engineer, another at the same time correspondingly as a lecture. They should not be jealous indeed. If another one at the same time get the position of state minister, the situation will be greatly different. They must have the different taste.
In the vicinity of equilibrium, we reasonably accept the linear assumption. Thus, the frictional force is proportional to M. And eventually, the frictional energy is .
From natural science, it is the simulation with oil (Newton's viscosity) to the relation of people. The distance of people is slippery and moving. This is the one side meaning. Another, the benefit of people is conflict. There is the situation of "you achieve your ambition, I may loss." The competition and the contradiction. Obviously, you may try to find other better position. So, the restraint is not so hard, but it is a little. Therefore, it leads to "the liquid behavior." As contrasted with that, the rational thinking of human being is free. So, it is the "gas behavior." It is the collision-choice mechanism.
Function is the monotonous by increasing of M. And it is not limited function. But, the "single-wood bridge function is limited function. It is the transitional function between 0 and 1. These two function are the basic dimensional functions, the fundamental functions. They play the important role in the process of management. They are full of sound and color, vivid and dramatic.
Chapter 2 Non-Symmetric Triangle
This chapter discusses the operational principal. First, we discuss the physio-psycholoy.
1 7, Another lovely number
George, miller published a paper named (a triangle number: seven, plus or minus two), 1956. He indicated, at arbitrary moment the limitation of short time memory is 7 +- 2 conception trunk. This low of short time memory for psychology can be called a golden law. It is part of natural science. Then it fits any people as living beings. It is one of construct of theory K.O.M.
Our life experience support this law. It is necessary to have a shopping list in case of much more diverse goods.
5 = 7-2. It is the lower number of (7+-2). It is the much popular from of the questionnaire. 8=7+1. It is the exaggeration of 7. There are Chinese proverb "smooth and slick on four sides and eight directions." A P.R expert, for example a young miss, she is shaking hands width somebody, at the same time, giving a hint with the eyes to another, talking with Bill, felling the smooth of floor board, smelling the fragrance of the perfume, and looking for the pearls and jewels. She may receive much information and then forms the "conception trunk." But, she can only operate at moment" >+-2 conception trunk.
Chinese saying: eight directions but never nine even sixteen. This is coincident with 7+_2. The Chinese culture is strong for thinking in images and experience induction. That is it.
10>9=7+2. Therefore, we understand the Mao, Zedong saying "you can not use ten fingers to press ten fleas." So, the words "concentrate the forces to make wipe-out campaign." You can understand from the comparison of external forces but also from the intrinsic psychological level of information processing. One should concentrate his mind, be absorbed in, then can make the things finishing and good.
Theory K.O.M thereafter to be sort out as simple pocket form. It has only 5 -6 conception trunks, e.g. the goal trunk, the externally trunk, and the K the O the M trunk.
The Chinese academia Simica present Chon, Guand-Zhao indicated, 1991, we would never throw some disciplines into so-called the capitalist class false-science, including the psychology, population theory, genetics. There was the 20 years blankness in China for psychology. it makes many people know few.
According to short time memory limit law, I design the "2*7 measurement". This is two time operation, first to decide the positive or negative, then to make the feeling seven-divided, as follows.
here,
4. the original point of coordinate, 4 - 7 is the positive direction, 4 - 1 is the negative direction.
5. "comparative" is
6. "very" is
7. "absolutely" is, "perfectly" is
There are also six insert paint with "0.5s". In summary, there are seven grades both in positive and negative directions.
The number in "2*7 measurement" then can be translated to the value of O, as follows
2*7 measurement O 2*7 measurement
If a friend wants to borrow money from you, you may absolutely accept $1, then choice 7, may choice 6 for $10; may choice 5, for hundreds dollar; for ten thousands, you may close the mouth, hesitate and remain undecided. This is the 4.
If you detect yourself some negative emotion first, then should have to choice the negative direction. For example, the person who wants to borrow money from you are not your true friend. Another case is, he wants to borrow millions, "it is ridiculous," you think.
2 Isosceles Triangle?
M, comes from the freely rational scoring of expert system; O as mentioned above comes from the feeling or emotion divided grades scoring, concretely the "2*7 measurement." Then, the (x1,x2) as the substitutive of K, How to score it?
Like 6 of last chapter mentioned, we may accept the seven divided radios. The leaders collectively score it. In practice, this procedure seldom to be used. Commonly, the first leader of the leader groups makes the decision after the counseling. Another is, to accept the standard viewpoint (1,0), This is , we ignore the cosmic standard. We accept the product with the multiplier of cosmic standard.
Theory K.O.M is as a dynamics. The (x1,x2) is a feeling of timing. The long g time integrated experience of lead, in the final analysis, is the feeling of timing. "Nod approval" and "shake head to refuse" are to decide the important and urgent. In fact, the less important things need to be done late, or slowly doing it. To slow down to the extreme point just not but don't do it. The world is not but the long river of time. The experience of lead steersman is thus the feeling of timing. This experience and feeling is the intelligence of lead. Why should we standardize it? We put the result of M, O these two dimensions in a diagram, in which the abscissa is , the ordinate is . If the leader accepts the (1,0) viewpoint, he will only concerns the value of abscissa of the case which is comment on. He needn't look the ordinate. If the leader accept the (0,1) viewpoint, he will only concerns the value of ordinate; If he keep (1,1) viewpoint, he should concern the distant between the poit and the original point of coordinate.
Thus, the K.O.M procedure is at leader's convenience. The operator submits the two dimension's consultant result to the leader and says:" please do as you like, then he has gone! the procedure like that is necessary. It is to pay respect to existent power and existent power operational procedure. This is the respect of experts and mass to the leaders in triple integrate decision making. This is to pay the respect to history and to the psychological inertia of society. The famous American scientific sociology scholar R.M. Murton said:" the truth exists in power." In one side, this is the truth pay respect to poer. In other side, the reason exist and the controllability exist. if there is always not in keeping with. The things should have to changed. Therefore the control period is longer.
The K.O.M procedure increases the participation of decision making. The scientific rational and the transparency. In brief, it increase the science and democracy. Then it must have contributed to building the honest in performing official duties.
However, this triangle is not the equilateral triangle. Is it the isosceles triangle? From the section three, we can see, the O and the M dimensions are not symmetric according to different situation.
3 The Operator
In theory K.O.M, there is the fourth status of operator besides. The decision maker (leader), expert and mass. The operator is the man who applies the theory K.O.M and designs the questionnaire and does the data processing. He is the consultant for decision maker. He is the soft science worker. In English, the operator is same name as telephone operational man. At the first glance, we consider the phone operator's job is very mechanical. After thinking better of that in the complicated and transient modem information society the person who plays the role of operator (making connection among people) is good enough. It is because that the leaders, experts, and mass have different status. Different knowledge and learning. Thereby their languages are different. Somebody uses the academic even special terms. Somebody's words are sharp, and anther's are implicit. Moreover, somebody's are perfunctory even telling lies. Making understanding and comprehensive all of these and taking into different connector to calculate are not quite easy. Of course, it is needed the wide knowledge, the gifted with a silver tongue, shrewd comprehensive. An also he should be enthusiastic and upright, modest, respectful. So, it is good enough to afford the role of operator.
Marx, Engles pointed out from (Holy families), "the science is the rearranging perceptions by ration method." To be a operator, to responsible to rearrange the all materials, he should be very scientific. There is a case, the weighing of leader's vote is nearly 30,000 yuan, weighing of a expert's vote is nearly 60,000 yuan, weighing of a common person's vote is nearly 2,000 yuan. How much the operator's functioning weighs? In fact, the his functioning can not be divided from leader's.
In May, 1990, via the intruding of the vice mayor of Shanghai Ni, Tian-Zeng, the president of Shanghai society for alumnus of alumna of Qinghua University, who late died young. I met the vice director of Shanghai system reforming office Lou, Ji-Wei (soon back to Beijing, State department). After my describing 15 minutes, he, as young as promising, said :"the general modeling has higher demand to operator." He hit the mark with a single comment.
Chapter 3 K.O.M Magic Cube
The previous two chapters describes the theory and the operational principle. This chapter will list the main multicolored results like a magic cube.
"Magic cube" is a toy for combination playing. The K.O.M is also a magic cube.
The total number for combination is 53=125, in formula, The 3, is the lovely number above mentioned; the 5 is another lovely number 7+-2, the more conservative one.
Therefore, the amount of the difference of perceptible managerial behavior is 125. It is because we commonly only do the two dimensions operation. There are totally 25 in this case. The O is inner discipatitve. Under any circumstance, O=0 is the best, not even at war times, still more the peace period, it can not be done. In the end, the language and word must be vague anyway. It is not likely the figure =3.14159 that clear and certain. In the end, the "arm bends always to inner." Then, the O becomes the quality of system. For a certain O, there is a optimal M (or V), but the total choices of experts are five. So, the subjective handling is possibly suitable or not.
In the semi-matrix (see introduction), we haven't totally accept the perception classified. Then we give totally 45 types. To my understand, 24 types are above the not bad solutions, including 12 types of not bad and sub optimal and the other 12 types are optimal but difficult to reach.
Internal causes are the grounds, external causes are the conditions. If my fix the O, for example, O=0.1, it is the very good quality. Then, it will only be the changing of parameter M. This is the operational characteristic. We name it as 5 behavior modes. In fact, it is easier to understand whole others in case of understanding this. This is a key thereby.
1 Five behavior modes
The five behavior modes are the operational characteristic of system. The operational means moving or running. It means the changing of speed. Engles indicated, "the existent form of matter is the movement." "And the movement is measured by speed. Therefore, using the speed M (M=V/[a] is a dimensionless speed) as the abscissa is very deeply profound. One kind of behavior has been denied after the assessing. It is not but the case of optimal speed should be zero. "An airplane has its optimal cruise speed under the condition of certain distance and minimum fuel spending. We may see this point on the chart.
The O as the inner quality is the parameter of characteristic. The viewpoint (x1,x2) is of course also an another parameter. It makes the abscissa moved a little. Under the certain (x1,x2), if O is divided into five types. There will be five characteristics, thus, one chart can provide 25 types of behavior modes. If (x1,x2) also changes. There will be 125 types totally.
Now, we only fix the viewpoint (1,0) (supplementary to have (1,1) individually), and O is only given 3 types, further more, only for the O=0.1 we give the behavior ranges chart.
M=0, totally bright, belongs to range of "realized."
M=1, critical or marginal bright, under some meaning, it reflects the red print title government document. So, in the vicinity of M=1, at least partly it is reasonable. So, we called it as "safe or reliable" range.
M=1.21, it is the optimal peak value point under the viewpoint (1,1). In practice, O=0.1 belongs to very good quality. It is reasonably capable to get the tip of contemporary popular. So, it does not satisfy to M=1. Another, under the viewpoint (1,0). Mopt=1.41. The viewpoint of (1,1) is softer than (1,0). (1,1) Mopt=1.21. Using these two as a ground, we fix the "moderate or steady" range.
M> Mopt=1.41, belongs to range of "premature advance."
M>1.8, belongs to "recklessly and blindly"
"Red print title government document" should be the reference for the market economy, even socialism market economy. The government document should be the guide. Everybody must advance according to his own pace. Everybody should not and can not advance like a monolithic bloc. If O=0.1, the quality is very good. It is reasonable to get the tip of popular, the optimal speed then will be the Mopt=1.41. Because of quite big difference between M=1.41 and M=1. So, this system is active and vital.
If the O=0.1, the quality is ba, Mopt=1 the difference of M=1 is very small. This will lead to the character of "languid and listless." The another case: if it changes the viewpoint, to viewpoint (1,1), there will be the (1,10 Mopt=0.96<1. It means theoretically that "doing is worse than not doing" for such system. For O=0.1, . Therefore, the marginal increase elasticity of more hard versus more results is 5=1 [(1.05-0.9)/(1-0.97)=5]. Then, its character should be the "languid and listless."
If the O=0.3, the quality is very bad. The optimal peak value of will be at Mopt<1. It means, under the meaning of statistical. This system is backward. It is not popular, it never "row against the flood"
If the O=0.333, the critical. The optimal peak value of will just be at M=Mopt=1. Therefore, the O=0.333 is a critical value in theory K.O.M
This chart lets us remind a famous saying of English:" the eagle may fly poer than the cock, but, the cock can not fly as high as eagle does." Except this words, every Chinese knows the "Zhong Young." It means "the golden man." The main point of it is "going too far is as bad as not going far enough." There is another more, "YiJing," or "the book of changes." It indicates the "Shi Zhong," which means "always keep the precise hit." All of above mentioned, we can see it clearly at one glance.
2 Behavior Structure
We return to the four of "one divided into two" (see chapter 1, 6) Then we understand that the discussing of O,M operational characteristic is a deep structure.
To connect the "four of one divided into two." They embed one after one likely a dragon. Then we do the logarithmic differencication, eventually we got the increase structure.
(1) In my monograph, I discussed from two sides that M=1.8 equivalent M=2 in practice, in case we accept some value of larger than 1.4. So, the meaning of M>1.8 is "doing things in peace period likely in war time. And the is lower than 0.5, .
(2) O=0.1, it correspondly equals "generally win" (under the common condition, or "get the passing score."
From the formula we can see,
In order to increase the effect of an organization, we may : to increase the materialize labor , for example, the introducing of foreign investment, the increasement of agricultural invest. The increasement of labor; K.O.M theory as information processing model. here we mainly deal with the intelligent labor, so is the increasement of amount knowledge of whole employee. For example, the introducing some professional persons to fill the gap, the post training; the deals with the consciousness; deals with the changing leader's viewpoint, for example, the leaders should have right viewpoint, don't be hurry doing things adjust the descendants do, also don't be haring no sense of shame to eat the "descendant's meal"; deals with the introducing some special intelligent talent, is the decrement of inner discipative. For example, to strengthen the communication and comprehension as well as public relations, the is to keep or strengthen the sensitive and alert as well as adaptive for external circumstance.
From all of above mentioned levels, the basic structure is the , the deep structures.
The investment no doubt is important, but the decision of introducing investment is made by people, the introducing investment is made by people. the materialized labor is adjusted by intelligent labor people is the most precious. This is the viewpoint of behavior science. So we stress the importance for decision making science and soft science (these two concepts basically are coincident.)
Wave structure and discipative structure: "Single-wood bridge function" reflects the efficiency of process (minus the wave loss)
to minus "jealous function" from, is the efficiency of process (only the discipative)
The total efficiency
These two structure are the risk and inner discipative; the information flow and the energy discipative flow; science and democracy; scientific and artistry; reasonable and feasible; rational and sensible; rational and limited rational' the operations research and behavior science; abstract man and real man; party spirit, factionalism and individuality; and "heavenly principles and human desire" and "gas behavior and liquid behavior."
In the final analysis. This is the deep two structure. We may explain commonly. First, the times have been changed, from the war times changed to peace times, from planned economy changed to market economy, from the agricultural and industrial society (of force and of energy) changed to post-industrial society or information society. "from the O side, "perform the understanding, perform also the not understanding, and to deepen understanding in the process of performing."-- such rule has been out of date. If the communication has been weakened, the O will increase. From the M side, the inherent value of war time is comparatively big. Then the roughly luck trying is partly reasonable. In information society, the external information is undergoing a myriad chains in the twinkling of an eye, the inner viewpoint is also multifarious. The communicating between external and internal, the adjustment and adaptation are become important and important day by day.
Second, the geographical difference. We have choice and must have to choice, the socialism for China, concerning the context of historical and development of China. The operation of socialism programming put the precondition of to minimum the external risk. Then, the main trouble is in the internal. We should pay enough attention to factor O. Otherwise, things cannot be done better. There is always the trouble, either inside or outside. As the operation of capitalism, for example, the small farming in Easter US husband and wife and a comteperary seasoning employee. They manage some 200 acres. The internal discipative can not to be begin to talk about. They pay much attention to outside risk, as energy cost, the price of product they sale, the climate, and the government subsidy policy.
3 Score Norm With Uncertainty
We commonly use the hundred-mark system. It's the tradition, it following chart, we give the scores of all behavior under the viewpoint of (1,0). It must be the ideal practically, considering the O=0.1, is the better quality, the =1.0672 at M=Mopt=1.41. Therefore, we fit the 1.0672 as score 100. Next, it O=Oc=0.333 M=Mopt=1, =0.667. The score then will be 62.5. For the absolute ideal, will be the highest score =137. Such, we can have whole scores at different circumstance.
If O=Oc=0.333, M=1, there will be . According to above mentioned, from the side, we get . Then, it means, in hundred-mark system we get score 62.5. Now we consider from the side, since the maximum of n equal , then, we get score 44.7, it is still the pass level.
For example, if you book train ticket in campus, there will normally spend two times, one for booking, another for picking ticket. If you don't know that the clerk may out of office at the time a little beyond the rest time, you may take three time totally. Such, the for you is 0.467. In other side, checking with your feeling, you find it is such pass level. That case is with risk but without O.
Another case, with O but without risk. For example, if we need decide the shop will open or not in coming holiday, we may accept the total employee vote. If we get 2/3 majority, we must have the feeling of the level of passing. In sum, there are two score norm: one for 2 dimension's uncertain, another for 1 dimension's uncertain. The chart is as follows.
In chart, the diagonal line is for the absolute clear circumstance, are related by diagonal line. If , it must be score 70 by the . Such case is likely that the pupils are taking examine test of arithmetic. The print of test sheet is clear. The multiplication cable for them is that should know or should be clear. If they do 7 titles correct in total 10 titles, they will get score 70 in hundred -- mark system.
The other curve shaped as a banana. Or we can name it as score norm with uncertainty. It indicates the straightforward line (diagonal line) is just for trouble. But, the score norm with uncertainty is form the both external risk and internal trouble indeed. For M, it is from 1 to 2 for complete; For O, it is from 0 to 0.5 for nearly the complete. In chart, the initiation curve is quit odd. The at the . The error range is perhaps a little larger than in engineering. But, it is still very good considering the difference between real "engineering as natural science and the "engineering" of decision making support system as interscience.
4 Efficiency
From the example of "two persons go upstairs to more the desk" (chapter 1) we can see that there are two kinds of efficiency. The one is under the first thermodynamics law or the meaning of energy conservative. It must determine how many energy spending in moving the desk and also how many work they have done. Such, we take account of technical factors as well. But, for the management behavior, the main factor is not the technical. Therefore, we don't accept the efficiency under the first three modynamics.
The second reason for that is the efficiency under the first thermodynamics is absolute. The more the heat spent, the more the work expected to do. A little time after, people discover the directionality for process. The heat can not totally transfer to work. There is a limit. The account compared to this limit is the relative truth. This is the efficiency under the second thermodynamics law.
In last division, we give the example of pupil doing the arithmetic calculation. if it is for adults, they should do it correctly. Therefore, score 100 for them is not but the pass level. Another example, a man takes a physical examination of color blindness, he makes each choice, gives the right answer, the doctor just say, you have passed jet.
Why the pupil has the pass level as score 60/ It is because, he is the primary learner, he still has some trouble to do calculation. Why you feel the efficiency of 2/3 is the pass level likely in the example of booking ticket (compare to color blindness examination. It may score 100 for pass)? It is because you accept the not stilt office schedule in campus.
For the banana shape score norm with uncertainty. the is the pass level. It is because the general should be facing external risk as well as internal trouble. The enigmatic enemy on one side. The other side, superior friendly force, subordinates, there have to be the feeling wronged, the misunderstanding and the old grudges. The achievements and the errors of thousand years, who comments?
In sum:
Without risk and inner trouble, = is the pass level; with one of risk and inner trouble, =2/3 or =0.6 such so is the pass level, we use the diagonal lien relations; with risk as well as inner trouble, =1/3 is the pass level, we use the banner shape score norm curve to deal with the uncertainty.
5 Same will of the people, the mountain would be moved
"Spme will of the people, the Tai mountain will be moved." This is a Chinese proverb. The so-called same will of the people is M=1 (no deviation of experts) and O=1 (The mass totally to accept the experts opinion.) This is not possible, and is not the ideal (the )
(1) O 0, but a little more than 0, this is the quite ideal.
O=0 it is the very good ideal, according to the table of the function, for M=1.8 (M=1.8 is the same thing of M=2, see , division 1, M=2 means the half information, this is the inherent character for war) It indicates, the system with the best quality of O=0, the character is "be eager to have a try", or e eager to take a gambling with the win rate just a little more than 50%.
(2) M 1, but a little more than 1, this is the better situation. Generally speaking, the function is increasing from M=0 to M=1, unless the O is quite large; and the is still increase in case of
So, if the O is not so larger, the behavior of system will always catch the tendency. It will not be satisfactory inactively doing things according to red print title government document.
The above are the results of theory K.O.M. The contents of "five behavior modes" are very rich.
Famous US management specialist AKOCA said:" quit many managers always hesitate and remain undecided, specially for them who got too much education, you have got 95% information yet, if you want to get the remnant 5%, there need 6 months ahead. After the sixth month, the information you laread got will be out of date perhaps," "what is the feature for a outstanding manager should have? if it is necessarily to have one word to describe, I may say, the judgment is the most important ........"
Therefore, he hold Mopt=1.05. Moreover, this is not universal truth in all situation. This is only the part of K.O.M full view. In the following parts, you will see that perhaps the character of enterprises.
Another famous figure in management circle is the former trustee in chief of general Motor Sloan. His famous saying is :" we don't manufacture the car, we make money instead." Now, the business school of M.I.t named him as the Sloan of all attendants, he refuse to give a conclusion. He does give the conclusion till the appearing different opinion. So, this is coincident with above mentioned rule: energy, (or O not to large, ) is continuously increasing along with M, when M is a little more than 1.
Now we comport the M=1, O=0 and the M=1.41, O=0.1. According to theory K.O.M , the previous is equal , the for next is equal 1.0672. Such a little difference is better than no difference anyhow. And this is coincident with Sloan's experience. The Scientific philosopher Kurn mentioned, better to keep the necessarily tension between two opposite poles. I think, there will be more simulative driving force. All of these are different from the absolutely and metaphysics likely understanding of "same will of people, the mountain would be moved."
Carefully to read the chart of "five behavior modes," we find more contents in it. For example, is monotonously decreasing then along with M increasing. But, the is firstly increasing then decreasing. The matter may indicate: the god officer perhaps frequently offends more people, but the officer who offends more people is not necessarily a good officer.
6 Monkey King
"Monkey King," his intelligence, K=
The highlights of K.O.M are: management is decision making, the institution soul be capable to be operated, the substantial of decision making operation is information processing. The information is changing and flowing. You behavior speed need match the external information speed. The external information is objective, the telephone number book is the result of hundreds people job. The information is analytical and differentiable. It means, the information has divided into kinetic, potential and internal energy like these three parts. If you say Mr. Smith is a good person, it should be a story of hundreds words behind this. If ten words constitute a sentence. There are theory or fifty sentences in story. Even more, there is stories in story, in order to introduce Mr. Smith, you must talk about Mr. Clark. Then there are hundreds sentence. Each sentence is a differentiation, an element of information or a particle, and the position of each sentence is equal.
If you feel somebody is dressing up as, there must be that his voice is not natural or something to be hidden, the shape of mouth is different, the expression in his eyes is false and so forth, but the different and the false also should be described. At the level of very tiny and basic level, the positions of them are equal. Eventually, we consider the fluid dynamics. There is a conception in fluid dynamics. This element is microscope -- large and macroscopic -- small. It is large enough to do the statistics but is small enough to look at the medium (fluid) as continuous. Making the comparison by information elements with this fluid elements, and checking every restraints we have transplanted the fluid dynamics method to the information processing. We have transplanted the engineering method to the social process.
Therefore, the substance of K is the ratio of 2nd and 3rd category information elements. if K=3. The 2/3 of total information in his brain will be potential useful. In other words his brain is occupied by 2nd category information till 2/3, and by 3rd category information by 1/3. If K=1, there will be nothing of potential useful information in brain. It is the critical state. If K<1. it should e the "unable to accomplish anything but liable to spoil everything. He is the negative pusher. The formula is as follows,
K-1=(2)/(3)
The chart of "five behavior modes" is for 1 The monkey king, he didn't pay attention to useless information, and he can translate any useful information. For White Bone Demon ( in the Chinese novel; Pilgrimage to the west) For common people like you and me consider it is a beautiful woman, and the monkey king can distinguish its origin. The monkey king is a god and spirit. He is not human being.
7 Lei, Feng
Lei, fen is a human being, not the god and spirit.
Lei, Feng hate enemy but loves people. "Treats orates with the warmth of spring, adopts the instructions of higher level with the attitude of "perform the understanding, perform also the not understanding, and to deepen understanding in the process of performing." As a solider, he do these perfectly, and these are the requirements of war.
If everybody in a system is Lei, Feng likely, and if there is no misunderstanding. There will be the O=0 for such system in the process. But, everybody should learn from lei, Feng. It doesn't mean, everybody has already become Lei, Feng. Therefore, the O=0 is impossible at all. It is the limit.
8 Robot
The robot is a kind of machine, not human being. Its feature: O=0.1, very good quality.
The traits of robot are : to perform strictly to code, which is done by human being. Such, the robot observes the disciplines, is honest in performing official duties, is not fear of death, does not make the frictional trouble with friendly forces, is without selfish ideas and personal considerations. But, the robot can not draw inferences about other cases from on instance.
The performance of robot can be calculated (see [ ]). Its performance is =1/M, for the certain things, =1. it is the perfect. Along with the increasing of M, the efficiency is decreasing monotonously. Then, we can compare the robot and the K.O.M, the real human being in K.O.M system, reader will see the chart as follows.
From the chart we can wee, the performance of robot approaches. The performance of human being system with K=1.4 O=0.1. The two cures twist together. We may roughly consider the two cures are the same. Moreover, in case M 1, the less risk exist, or M>1.7, the more risk exist, because of the precise correction (for the former) and the not fear of death (for the latter). The robot performance is better than the real human being (with K=1.4 O=0.1). But, in a range nearly 1.1 Why we say the O=0.1 is the better. From the "five behavior modes" we can see, if , the peak will be at the function and then seeking the maximum. The =0.333 is a critical or a marginal. Its character is : not following the fashion, the comteperary tendency; not popular; not rowing against the flood. Or correctly, it is at the margin of rowing against and rowing loan with the flood. Such, we may say it is the margin of backward. Eventually, from to , the O=0.1 (near the O=0) should be the better.
Now we take some analogue. A bicycle is moving forward. its speed nearly 4 -5 . The mind resistance is not very large in case of without strong wind. The bicycle has several bearings. The magnitude of bearing friction is supposed to be several thousandth. Since a bicycle has nearly ten bearings, the inner discipative of the matter of riding bicycle is perhaps several hundredth. We compare a system of some people and of external risk and internal discipative with the bicycle riding. The former as a movement is more complex and high level. The 10% expenditure (O=0.1) is quite less.
Theory K.O.M is a inter-science. It provides the possibility to have a comparison of natural movement with social movement in a same unique framework.
9 Solider of PLA
The people's liberation army (PLA) is a crowd of excellent. And we may regard them as a system with O=0.1. Of course, don't look them upon robot soldiers, so as to avoid the negative meaning.
If O=0.1, the optional playing will be at mopt=1.41. This is more than M=1 as 4.1%. It means this troop is dynamic and full of vitality. They don't satisfy the M=1. More important, the system with K=1.4 and O=0.1 Its in the case of M=1.8; its in case M=2. For the latter, it approaches the pass score of (*. if we take a value of K little more than 1.4, the value of may very close to 0.333). Therefore, this troop is good at "coming to assemble at the first call can capable of fighting and winning." Though, the winning is at the pass score.
If O=0 instead of O=0.1, it is the extreme outstanding quality. Because Mopt=1.8 or 2 (*, as the , the M=1.8 in this thesis is equal to M=2). It means the optimal playing is going to battle field. This troop is at the bet form and eager to have a try. And they always win.
If O=0.05 instead of O=0.1, it means the troop can afford the hard battle and win compare the winning at the pass score.
In summary, now we are capable to connect the thinking in images and intuitive thinking and logical thinking. We are capable to try data-processing of intuitive thinking. If a system has a state better than "commonly fighting and winning," We may at moment fit its quality as O=0.05.
O=0.2 is moderate quality because (1,0) Mopt=1.21 is the optimal M with viewpoint (1,0). So it is the same as Mopt; (1,1) Mopt is the optimal M with viewpoint (1,1)]. Therefore, if it is going all out, it will be creative. But since 91,1) Mopt=1.0, they may be discouraging in case to change viewpoint (*from (1,0) to (1,1)]. Then, from the discussing of two sides, we may understand this character; neither too firmly grasp, or too slowly motion.
O=0.3 is bad quality. Since Mopt=1.05 which is not very different from M=1. It is hard to be active, because of not plenty of room (5%). More, the (1,1)Mopt=0.96. In this case, doing nothing active is better than doing. Then, this system inclines to body the superior instructions, but, it does not matter for hearing nothing. If M=0.1, the will be 97%. It means that doing harder can not lead to matchable increasement of benefit. In practice, the effort increase 1.05-0.9=0.15, the effect of benefit increasement is only 1-0.97=0.03. Therefore, the marginal utility is 5:1. People then should not be energetically and vigorously. We may understand its character:" languidly acting in accordance with." This is " a low of gruel." "food prepared in a large canteen," or "mess together."
O=0.333 is worse quality, it is at the critical of fashion (catch up with times flood) and the backward. The critical is also for the qualified to do the research work. The critical is the stop threshold critical under the combined effect of force, energy, information wave according to the theory K.O.M. If it is the static force model, the stop critical will be the O=1. Therefore, the process in modern information society is much easier to be stopped. The reason is that we should pay more for the wave resistance. And this is non-linear, the inner discipative is non-linear increasing.
O=0.4 is very bad quality.
An article says, some Japanese enterprises are sick of "huge enterprise disease" but without symptoms. The disease reflects:" without communicating between inhere and lower levels, right and left; meeting overload but nothing passes as resolution; only care own department but don't care overall situation; blind optimistic; be intoxicated with self-satisfaction; reacting slowly, motion doesn't work; overstuffed bureaucratic structure, lower effective, overstocking talent persons" and so forth.
Japan has such kind of modern disease. How about China?
10 Parameter classification
If K= , he can take infinite risk. If O=0, he can take 50% risk as mentioned above.
But, the real system has K O, thus we should choice less than 50% risk. If O=0.1, then Mopt=1.41, its reciprocal is and the optimal risk . So, general speaking, in the peace period, conservatively to say, it is reliable to have risk less than 30%.
The monkey king is the figure of Chinese novel (pilgrimage to the west). This novel is mythology story. There is a figure named Shi, Xiu, in another famous Chinese novel (waterside). The (waterside) is a realistic literature.
The Shi, Xiu is meticulous, shrewd and courageous. After probing the issue one tenth by one tenth until to eight or nine tenth. he has given the final conclusion. The intelligence of Shi, Xin is good or better, or commonly like you and me. But, the monkey king is a superman.
The parameter classification as follows
K<= 1 "unable to accomplish anything but liable to spoil everything"
K=1 - 3 common intelligence.
K>3 super ordinary intelligence.
K infinite insight, monkey king
O=0 ideal without inner friction, everybody is Lei, Feng or even better.
O=0.05 better than very good quality.
O=0.1 very good quality, the practical ideal. The robot has the equality nearby this.
O=0.2 moderate quality, not rush, but slow
O=0.3 bad quality, languidly acting in accordance with
Oc=0.333 the worse acting in accordance with of modern information society. Stop threshold critical under the combined effect of force, energy and information wave. The threshold of creative behavior.
O=0.4 very bad quality.
M<1 The "blue collar" worker's typical situation (and character)
M=1 The " white collar" clerk's typical situation (and character)
M=1.05 Common enterprise's typical situation )and character)
M=1.10 designing institute, the faculty, designer, engineer's typical situation (and character)
M=1.20 research institute's typical situation (and character)
M=Mc=1.41 The troop, the general and soldier's typical situation (and character)
M=2 the war in average meaning, half information.
M= blind person rides blind horse, in midnight beside the deep po.
Chapter 4 Preliminary Contrary
In this chapter, we have contrast the sayings of famous persons regulations and contentious, life experiences and different school of thoughts for decision making theories with the theory K.O.M. In section 2, we have the contrary of living practice al living cases. Seeing that, we name this chapter's contrary as preliminary.
1. Saying of Mao, Zedong
"A general, who win two battles and lose one battle in total three battles, can be appoint again" -- a friend of mine once told me that Mao, Zedong gave this saying. I can not retrieve the criginal source. But, in the period working in university of science and technology of China, The vice president Qian and the director of Marxium -- Leninism teaching and research group Luo. They both have the nod approval.
In practice, balancing both win and lose. The working efficiency of this general is 1/3. From the scorenorm with uncertainty, we can see, his score is 62 - 69. It is the pass score and we can appoint him again (but not promote.)
The folk proverb says: "Having things tried never more than three." A thing has tried by you three times already. If it is still not successful, you should not try repeatedly once more. The many regulations in sport competition like that. For modern society, the main meaning of this lies in that we need more thinking. The thing hasn't been done, the setback occurs, we may try again. If the second is still not done, you should keep in mind: only have the final chance. You need pay much attention to do so, as to avoid the cause of technical careless. The fourth try, general speaking, is meaningless or is "succeed but defeated." In sum, we should think deeply into the intrinsic causes for the matter, which is not succeed with two try, never enthusiastic only.
2. Experience of Lin, Biao
The Chinese ex-marshal Lin, Biao exploded himself in so-called cultural revolution. But, we should not give up some saying for the person is bad. We must accept that Lin has considerably experiences for war. In practice, his battle or tactics principal is 'four quick and one slow." And his strategy or battle principal is just the "70% assurance is enough to make resolution."
The latter principal is coincident with theory K.O.M. Or, in other side, the Lin's experience support theory K.O.M. In 80s, we may avoid to say so. But, in 90s, the affair of cultural resolution is far over. We may not avoid to say so.
His saying is clearly not for the special general. But, his saying is clearly for the PLA. The quality of PLA is suitable by fitting O=0.1. Thus, the optimal assurance is just 70%, to more assurance leads to less fight chances in total. Too less assurance leads to many battles but the effect is still bad for balancing the wins and the loses. The intelligent of a general is just to understand and to figure it.
3. The Procedure of US Congress
The procedure of US congress, if the Senates and the House of Representative wants again to vote down president and maintain the original proposal, which has been passed by them and been overruled by president, it should have the majority of two third.
The key of issue is: there are two kinds of problems. One is the certain, clear and simple, another is uncertain vague, fuzzy and complex. There is difference, for which we should pay the cost from complex, vague to clear and certain. For the simple problem we use the simple majority. For the complex issue we accept the two third majority.
If we wants to decide weather the shop should be open in coming vacation, this will be a simple problem. We need only simple majority. And if a university makes a resolution of putting the first support to biology department instead of physics department. It should accept the two third majority. It is because the old convention, the original relations and the networks all can find the exit under the vague principled resolution. The excellent students, finance, the chances of advanced studies for teachers are possibly still to decline to physics department. The two third majority is the marginal percentage to achieve this resolution without discount. Otherwise, either to delay on time or to discount on contents. If you wants to accept the simple majority, you will have to change the resolution to be more clear.
In modern information society, many problems are complex and uncertain. The problem, which has been passed by senate and house but been voted down by president, is of course complex and weighty for more discussing and researching. According to theory K.O.M, is the condition for the peak passing at the value of M>1.
In May, 1990 when I was in business travel in Beijing, I saw a news (the later part), which told a factory has already accepted the rule of two third majority. I then rushed to CCTV (Chinese Central Television) to ask. It had been told that is a textile will in Sha Shi, Bubei province.
4. Sun Wu's militaries Strategy & Tactics
From the theory K.O.M point of view, the M relates to the external circumstance, the choice of Mopt is just the choice of timeliness, the time scale, the M decides the thing's main axle. The information society of course uses the information speed [a] as a main scale, or uses the ratio of behavior speed versus the external necessary information speed M as the main axle. The O is as the inner circumstance, it should be the geographical advantages. The O is second important OM is the inner discipative function. It reflects the inner discipative should also spread out. Downward again, it is the K, the Theory K.O.M considers, under certain condition, the K is not sensitive, its importance, therefore is quite small.
The amount of permutation of five elements is 120. It seems to say, the theory, K.O.M coincident with "Sun Wu's military strategy & tactics" only within the error less than 1%. The The M is the timeliness scale, the O is the geographical factors. The two combined are the order of importance and urgency. It is the and the by the language of differentiation and integration. Therefore, the M relates to loss of not synchronous of reforming and the O relates to loss of not matching of reforming.
5. RAND Co.
One day in 1986, I was a guest in the home of Prof. Harrington of University of Maryland. His home is at College Park, Suburban of Washington. The house and the garden are spacious and simple and unadorned. The Germany decadent host style like. His wife is a England descent, enthusiastic and able. She voluntarily does some donating and food delivering for homeless people. They have a pair beautiful and talent girls, who are studying in high school. I let Prof. Harrington to read my manual draft which was published in Journal of the American society for information Science. He read the paragraph about the score norm with uncertainty. He said this curve like the assessment curve of RAND Co. to its staff's performance.
After I return to China in 1987, I have hoped to do computer retrieve the articles about RAND Co. But, I didn't do it because the expensive cost.
Before the comparison with different school of though, we sum the above five divisions up.
First, the authoritative and exactitude.
During the "cultural revolution' period. The saying of Mao, Zedong were named "The highest instruction." I worked in a institute of Chinese Academia Sinica, Zhong Guan Cun, Beijing. At that time, when every new exposition of him was distributed, there should have a parade with beating drums and gongs in the community of Zhong Guan Cun. Sometime, it was the midnight, then it named "transmitting the newest instruction never stay over night." For this young generation, who haven't the first-hand experience may feel unimaginable. But, no matter how, the instruction of Mao's is certainly important.
About the exactitude. Why the quality of PLA soldiers is O=0.1? whether or not it is O=0.12 or O=0.05? Since the theory K.O.M has already described the different system behavior with different o. Then we can say, O=0.15 and O=0.05 is not prepare. But, O=0.09 or O=0.11 is possible and we originally claim, the error range is about 10%.
The "Sun Wu's military strategy and tactics." The "Dao; Tian; Di; Jiang; Fa" can not be considered as inattentive, vague and general concept. It meaning and order is very scientific. For Japan and US, the Second, to raise the to theoretical experiences.
Everybody has his own life experiences. But, to raise it to a wide covered and capable quantitative operational theory is very important but difficult. Therefore, people do have some stereotype viewpoint towards the social sciences. More two thousands years have passed since the published of The